With the 2007 elections in the rear view mirror, there’s much talk about what lies ahead for Virginia Republicans in the upcoming elections. On the surface, it looks like it will get worse before it gets better. Pundits are already handing John Warner’s Senate seat to former Democrat Governor Mark Warner.

It looks like Tom Davis is not running, popular newcomer into the blogosphere General Peter Pace is not interested in running, leaving us with former Governor Jim Gilmore as the frontrunner for the GOP nod. A Gilmore vs. Warner match up creates a tough road for the GOP. Sorry to say it, but that’s just how it is. So any hope for John Warner’s seat staying in Republican hands? A couple of my friends back in Rhode Island asked me about this today, and I remembered a blog post I read a couple weeks back from my friend Matt Lewis at Townhall.com.

If you haven’t had a chance to check out this post, take a look:

VA Senate Race Update
Matt Lewis - Townhall.com
October 25, 2007
Click here for more posts by Matt Lewis

Today’s Washington Post seems to confirm speculation that VA Rep. Tom Davis will not seek the U.S. Senate seat being vacated by moderate Republican Sen. John Warner.

Davis may have decided that even if he were to win the GOP convention — which, due to the format, favored former Governor Jim Gilmore — defeating popular former Democrat governor Mark Warner would be an uphill battle. Some are speculating Davis may wait until Sen. Jim Webb is up for re-election in four years, to seek a Senate seat.

Of course, this leaves Virginia Republicans in bad shape. Jim Gilmore is no longer popular, and Rep. Eric Cantor seems more interested in staying in the House, presumably to one day become Speaker, than in running for Senate.

Though a draft Pace campaign exists, General Peter Pace is not interested in running — and speculation that Pat Buchanan may seek the seat seems to be just that.

At the end of the day, the only candidate who seems to be in the race is Gilmore, and almost everyone agrees he cannot win. This weak field is probably the result of a presumed bad Republican year — as well as a strong Democrat opponent.

… But the problem with fielding weak candidates — even in a tough year — is that political circumstances change. For example, who would have thought, two years ago, that Jim Webb would defeat George Allen?

So while Mark Warner seems invincible today, there are a few important things to consider. For one, he was elected Governor in an off-year, which means national politics had influence on his campaign. Conversely, this time, he will be on the ballot with Hillary Clinton at the top of the ticket. This, of course, could be a drag on Democrats in places like conservative Southern Virginia.

… What is more, it is possible Warner might abandon his campaign for U.S. Senate, if selected to run as Hillary’s Vice President.

Were this scenario to occur, Tom Davis might wish he had stayed in the race …

He’s right! On November 12 2005, who would have thought that Jim Webb would have had even the slightest chance of taking out George Allen? There’s always hope and a lot can happen in 12 months. The conservative message is a winning message. Just ask the newly elected Democrats to Virginia’s General Assembly who ran to the right of the standard Democrat message, and in the case of Senator-elect Chap Peterson, to the right of the incumbent republican senator. Let’s set our sights on victory in ‘08.